As quantum computing races toward practical breakthroughs, Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations are facing increasing scrutiny. Prominent analyst Willy Woo has proposed a potential safeguard against this quantum threat—by transferring Bitcoin assets to SegWit addresses and holding them there for about seven years. According to Woo, SegWit offers an extra layer of protection because it conceals the public key until the first outgoing transaction, reducing exposure to quantum attacks that could derive a private key from a public one.
Woo warns that newer formats like Taproot could be more vulnerable, as they directly embed public keys. He recommends avoiding any outgoing transactions from SegWit wallets until the crypto industry develops a robust quantum-resistant encryption standard. Most experts believe this will happen by 2030, leaving enough time to prepare.
However, not everyone agrees. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, criticized Woo’s approach, calling SegWit “not a protection model.” He argues that waiting seven years could lead to stagnation or even network collapse. Edwards insists that Bitcoin developers should act now to strengthen the protocol against quantum attacks, describing Bitcoin as “the most vulnerable network in the world” if left unprotected.
Quantum Doomsday Clock Predictions
The Quantum Doomsday Clock project estimates that quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption could appear within two years. Researchers calculated that just 1,673 logical qubits could compromise the ECC-256 algorithm used in Bitcoin wallets. For comparison, RSA-2048 would require 2,314 qubits, and RSA-4096—nearly 4,000. With error correction improving rapidly, the timeline could shrink further.
Once quantum computers reach this capability, they could theoretically crack Bitcoin’s cryptography within days, exposing millions of coins. The most vulnerable wallets are those using revealed public keys, such as early P2PKH addresses. Experts emphasize that only post-quantum cryptography (PQC) will ensure long-term safety.
Panic Could Be Worse Than the Threat
Industry veteran Yoon Au, founder of BOLTS Technologies, cautions that panic could cause more harm than any actual quantum attack. He notes that market fear spreads faster than logic: “A single false claim that Bitcoin encryption was broken could spark a mass sell-off, crashing the market overnight.” Recent flash crashes on minor rumors have already demonstrated how fragile sentiment can be.
Differing Expert Opinions
Physicist Edward Parker of RAND Corporation acknowledges that quantum computing poses a serious threat, but stresses that the danger remains distant. Researcher Ian McCormack adds that “quantum computers are nowhere near capable of breaking modern encryption,” noting that reducing error rates and scaling qubits will take years. Meanwhile, Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter warns that around 4 million BTC are already sitting in exposed wallets—making them theoretically vulnerable if a powerful enough quantum machine emerges.
Path Forward: Governance and Upgrades
The challenge for Bitcoin lies not only in technology but also in governance. Any major cryptographic update requires network-wide consensus among miners, developers, and node operators. As computer scientist Scott Aaronson points out, “Unlike Ethereum, where upgrades can be decided more centrally, Bitcoin changes demand broad agreement, making them slow but stable.” A rushed or divided upgrade could cause a hard fork—potentially fracturing the network.
Most experts now advocate a gradual transition to post-quantum standards such as ML-DSA or lattice-based cryptography, ensuring security without destabilizing the ecosystem. Until then, users are advised to limit key exposure and avoid reusing public addresses.
Conclusion:
While the quantum threat to Bitcoin is genuine, it remains more theoretical than immediate. The real danger may not come from quantum computers themselves but from fear-driven overreactions that could destabilize the crypto market. As research progresses, the industry’s best defense will be measured adaptation—not panic. Bitcoin’s resilience has been tested before, and with proactive innovation, it can withstand even the quantum era.
